Thursday, January 2, 2014

Apple's Crystal Ball says 2014 is going to be a huge year for them.

In a memo to employees, Cook said, "We have a lot to look forward to in 2014, including some big plans that we think customers are going to love."
It would be easy to dismiss this as bluster from the CEO. What else would he say to employees: Hey guys, great year, let's take 2014 off to recharge?
In this case, though, the key phrase from the earnings call is "new ones," as in new product categories, which hints at something other than an iPhone or an iPad in 2014. 
Cook has been fairly forthright about Apple's product timeline. In April, he said,  "We will have some really great stuff in the fall and all across 2014." A day before fall officially began, Apple started selling the iPhone 5S and 5C. 
He also warned that Apple wouldn't release a cheap iPhone. And sure enough, Apple didn't release a cheap iPhone.
So, we're expecting new products in 2014, and a new product category. 
Here, specifically, is what we're expecting:
  • A bigger iPhone. The rumor mill is cranking hard on this one. We'll be stunned if the iPhone only comes in 4-inch and 3.5-inch sizes next year. We expect Apple to make a 5-inch iPhone. There's talk Apple will do a big, 6-inch phablet-style phone as well. We're not expecting a phablet, but we we would love it.
  • The iPad Pro. Rumor mill cranking hard on this one, too. There's talk of Apple doing a 12-inch iPad. There's also talk that it's going to redefine the laptop. There's a good chance these two rumors overlap, and Apple creates some sort of hybrid product. 
  • A better Apple maps. Apple didn't hire a bunch of people with mapping expertise to sit on their hands. They better release a radically improved Apple Maps next year. 
  • A new look for Apple's Mac operating system. It's weird that Apple's design language is inconsistent. We expect uniformity with the Mac OS matching iOS in 2014.
Here's other stuff we're expecting, but we're not certain will happen:
  • The iWatch. We're not 100% certain we'll see an iWatch next year. It seems like Apple started staffing up for the iWatch team this year. To get a product out the door in 12 months would be amazing. But, you may say to yourself, didn't Tim Cook say "new" product categories in 2014? The iPad Pro would technically fill the "new" product category slot for Apple. So, maybe the iWatch is a 2015 thing.
  • Changes to the Apple retail stores. Apple's retail stores need some polish. With a new retail chief we expect subtle changes next year. A bigger revamp is probably coming in 2015.
  • Something with TV. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster thinks a physical television is coming. We're skeptical, about that, but we think something happens. Maybe it's opening up the Apple TV (the little box) to developers. Maybe it's updating the Apple TV to be motion controlled. Maybe it is a 60-inch Apple television. Who knows! We just think it will be something.
  • Refinements to iOS 7. It's amazing Apple put out iOS 7 in 2013. It seems like it overhauled its whole OS in ~8 months. When you rush, you make some mistakes, and we expect Apple to clean up the mistakes next year.
  • A Retina iMac. Everything else is Retina with Apple, so why not the iMac?
  • A Retina MacBook Air.  See above.
  • A 4K monitor. Zzzzzzz, we know. But, Apple should have a sharp monitor to match its new Mac Pro.
And that's about it! It should be another big year for Apple.

While we're here, it's worth noting that what we're expecting in 2014 from Apple will be thanks to the combination of Tim Cook and Jony Ive as the company's leaders.

It's possible that in 2014, Apple will make gadgets with screen sizes of 2-inches, 3.5-inches, 4-inches, 5-inches, 6-inches, 7.8-inches, 9.7-inches, 11-inches, 12-inches, 13.3-inches, 21.5-inches, 27-inches, and 60-inches.

That's an almost-Samsungian level of product variety. And it's only possible because Cook has the logistical and organizational discipline to make it happen.

Ive's job is to dream up the gadgets. Cook's job is to make them an affordable reality.

In 2014, we should see this in full effect.

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