With last week’s iPhone launch behind it, and next week’s iPad announcement ahead, 2013 product introductions are basically a wrap for Apple. While we still await the final details of the newest iPads — a slimmer full-size model, a Retina screen on the Mini — and perhaps updated Macbook Pros, the company is already onto next year’s products. And if the pros at DisplaySearch and KGI Securities are to believed, those include a larger screen iPhone (at last?) and a long-awaited update to the Macbook Air, with a Retina screen of its own. But there is apparently more on tap, including possibly a cheaper desktop iMac, a larger 13-inch iPad, Apple’s long-awaited televisions, and the much-discussed smartwatch. These could be the catalysts to reignite slowed growth at the company.
Many are quick to dismiss the rumor mill — and with good reason. Anyone with a website and an idea can post, “Apple to release really cool gadget next year with features I want.” But some sources are better than others. David Hsieh of DisplaySearch is on such source and KGI Securities anaylst Ming-Chi Kuo is another. One of their secrets is that Apple can’t introduce a product at all without acquiring literally millions of parts and getting them into their supply chain to make their product launches possible. I’ve discussed this before, but it’s worth reiterating: Just because the Nexus 7 has a Retina-quality display (and it’s a nice one, I can say from experience) doesn’t mean the iPad Mini could have had one 6 months ago. For all Google/Asus’ success with their tablet, Apple sells millions more.
To do a Retina Mini, Apple needs to have acquired 10 million screens before shipping a single unit and to be certain that it could obtain 10 million more each subsequent quarter. The way it does that is through a series of supplier agreements with display makers that are negotiated far in advance and often lead to dedicated production of Apple specified screens for its products. Hsieh, who has been in the business for a long time, talks to everyone, tries to figure out who is making what for Apple, and then attempts to discern how it relates to future products. From that, he’s produced a “best guess” a the 2014 product line.
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